NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions
After months of anticipation, the NBA Playoffs have finally arrived. The long regular season is behind us, and with the tankers, fringe play-in squads, and teams deep in rebuild mode officially out of the picture, the real contenders are taking center stage.
In this piece, I’ll be breaking down and predicting every first-round series with a deep dive into matchups, key players, and X-factors. While a few games have already been played due to some unforeseen delays on my end, I want to make it clear that none of those early results have influenced my original picks. These predictions are based on months of watching, analyzing, and understanding how these teams operate.
Let’s dive in.
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
These two teams couldn’t be more different. The Oklahoma City Thunder just wrapped up one of the best regular seasons in recent memory, built on discipline, attention to detail, and a balanced offensive attack. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are, frankly, a mess.
This matchup is a nightmare for the Grizzlies for several reasons. First, let’s talk about depth. The Thunder can go 9 or 10 players deep without losing production, while the Grizzlies can only really count on three or four reliable contributors — and even those guys, like Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr., tend to disappear in big moments.
Defensively, OKC has elite depth across the board, especially at guard and in the frontcourt. Memphis, on the other hand, is entirely reliant on Ja Morant to carry the load. But he’ll be hounded every possession by a rotation of Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — all of whom have a case for All-Defensive honors. Desmond Bane won’t get any breathing room either, guarded by the same relentless defenders. Neither of Memphis’s primary scorers will have a moment to relax.
And even if Morant and Bane find ways to contribute, Jaren Jackson Jr. is in for a brutal series. He has a track record of fading in big games, and now he’s going up against Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — arguably the most disruptive interior duo in the postseason. Jackson will be seeing them in his nightmares.
On the flip side, the Grizzlies simply don’t have the defensive personnel to slow down OKC. Memphis enters the playoffs with one of the worst defenses in the field, and they’re running into an all-time great offense. Between SGA, Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Hartenstein, Wallace, Wiggins, and Dort, the Thunder are stacked with scoring and playmaking at every position.
Fatigue will only make things worse. With Morant, Bane, and Jackson Jr. needing to play nearly the entire game just to keep things competitive, their legs won’t be there on defense late in games, and OKC will capitalize.
Very few teams match up well with the Thunder, but the Grizzlies might be the worst possible opponent. The Grizzlies walking into OKC is like bringing a spoon to a gunfight.
Prediction: Thunder in 4
#2 Houston Rockets vs. #7 Golden State Warriors
This is a classic matchup between an old, experienced playoff team and a squad of young bucks trying to make noise on the biggest stage.
After defeating the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament, the Warriors secured themselves a date with the Houston Rockets, and they shouldn’t be happy about it. Although this is the first time that this Rockets core will be making a playoff appearance, they did not land the #2 seed in a historically difficult Western Conference by accident. They have a young, athletic, and defensive-minded squad coached by Ime Udoka, who led a very similar Celtics team to the Finals just three years ago.
The last time these teams played, the Rockets won 106-96, and they gave Stephen Curry fits on offense. With Amen Thompson as the primary defender, and plenty of help from Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason, they held Steph to one of the worst games of his career with three points. That was no anomaly. This Rockets defense is scary good.
Although the Warriors are led by three Hall-of-Famers, they are not the same team they used to be. I hate to say it, but they just look old sometimes, especially against a squad as spry as Houston. While Kerr can draw up plenty of creative sets to open up his stars, Curry will inevitably get his shooting stroke going, and Jimmy may return to playoff form, I still don’t think it’s enough. Beyond Curry and Butler, they don’t have a threatening third scoring option, meaning that the terrorous Houston defense will be laser focused on those two.
Conversely, the Rockets’ biggest issue is not having “the guy” on offense. They have plenty of guys who can go put up 25 points – Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Alperen Sengun – but they don’t necessarily have a primary scoring option. Alongside their playoff inexperience, this could become a massive problem in late-game situations. Alternatively, their scoring-by-committee approach can work in their favor in the clutch, as the Warriors have to keep an eye on everybody.
The Rockets must open the series with two wins in Houston. The last thing they want is the Warriors returning home with confidence. If they can win those two and steal at least one at the Chase Center, the Rockets will take off into the second round.
Prediction: Rockets in 7
#3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves
This is easily one of the most exciting matchups of the first round. With Luka Dončić now in Los Angeles and his history against the Timberwolves, this series promises to be fiery and competitive.
The most glaring mismatch is size. The Lakers’ best option at center is Jaxson Hayes, who, at his peak, is little more than a lob threat. In contrast, the Timberwolves have Rudy Gobert, one of the league’s premier interior anchors. While many expect Minnesota to dominate down low, it might not be that simple. The Lakers may not have a center, but they are big. Luka Dončić and LeBron James, the Lakers' primary ball-handlers, both stand over 6'6", and 6'8" forward Rui Hachimura is shooting 40% from deep while averaging 13 points per game.
Why does that matter? The Lakers have the tools to pull Gobert out of the paint. Just look at Game 2 of last year’s Western Conference Finals to see how vulnerable Gobert is when forced to defend on the perimeter, especially against Dončić. Even with solid wing defenders like Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Clark, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, containing Dončić, LeBron, and Austin Reaves is a major challenge.
The biggest question for Minnesota is the Julius Randle factor. He has a history of disappearing in the playoffs — a concerning trend. Anthony Edwards is an elite talent, but he can't carry the entire offensive load. In fact, Minnesota often struggles when everything runs solely through Ant. If Randle steps up? It’s a different story.
I’ve believed in this Timberwolves squad more than most all year, but I just can’t bet on Randle against two Hall-of-Famers. Anthony Edwards will be fantastic, but it won’t be enough. The Lakers are moving on to the second round.
Prediction: Lakers in 7
#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers
This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Clippers are surging, while the Nuggets are still reeling from the shocking firing of Mike Malone. Momentum favors L.A., but this goes beyond energy — the Clippers are firing on all cylinders.
Since Kawhi Leonard's return from injury, the Clippers have had the league’s top offense and defense. They've quietly become a powerhouse, perfectly equipped to expose Denver’s weaknesses.
The key battle is in the post. Nikola Jokic will get his numbers, but Ivica Zubac is one of the few bigs in the West who can challenge him. Zubac’s goal isn’t to stop Jokic, but to not let him get anything easy. Offensively, Zubac can exploit Jokic’s defensive lapses and inability to elevate on pick-and-roll lobs in the paint, and likely have lots of success in post-ups. With Jokic being the only option to guard Zubac, he will have to be on the floor – it’s only a matter of time before Jokic loses steam.
Outside of the paint, the Clippers’ cohesive star power should overwhelm Denver’s defense. Kawhi looks like his vintage apex-predator playoff self, and neither Michael Porter Jr. nor Aaron Gordon can stop him. James Harden has embraced an impressive playmaking role, thriving in the pick-and-roll and choosing his moments to attack with stepbacks and drives. He’ll face tougher defensive matchups in Jamal Murray and Christian Braun, but still has the tools to control the game.
Ultimately, the Clippers have been dominant down the stretch, while Denver limped into the postseason. Even with the Nuggets' home-court edge, the Clippers are more likely to steal wins. They’ve lost just once in their last 14 home games — by two points to the Thunder. After years of skepticism, it feels like L.A. is finally ready to prove something – sorry, Paul George.
Prediction: Clippers in 7
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Miami Heat
The Miami Heat have snuck into the playoffs once again, but I don’t see them making another surprising run to the NBA Finals. This Cleveland Cavaliers team is simply too versatile and talented to bow out in the first round.
The Cavs boast one of the most prolific offenses in the league, largely thanks to their cohesive core. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland can punish defenses from the perimeter, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley form the league’s best interior duo, and Ty Jerome and De’Andre Hunter might be the most dangerous bench combo in the NBA. This team operates like a well-oiled offensive machine. And while Miami has the best coach in the league and a consistently stingy defense, it likely won’t be enough to stop Cleveland.
Sure, Miami may be able to slow down Cleveland in short spurts, but the Cavaliers are built to sustain offensive pressure. At any moment, they’re capable of unleashing 20-0 runs. Even with Miami’s discipline and defensive schemes, they simply don’t have the personnel to consistently weather those storms.
On the other end, Miami lacks the offensive firepower to seriously contend in this series. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are their only reliable sources of scoring, making their attack predictable and one-dimensional. While Andrew Wiggins might chip in with the occasional surprise performance, he’s arguably one of the streakiest scorers in recent memory.
Cleveland’s defense is more than equipped to handle that. Expect them to lock in on Miami’s stars — especially Adebayo. With Allen and Mobley patrolling the paint, Bam will struggle to find space and rhythm, which disrupts Miami’s ability to create kick-outs and generate dynamic offense. Even if Herro or Wiggins start scoring, it'll likely come through tough isolation possessions — not the kind of offense that wins playoff games against elite competition.
“Heat Culture” doesn’t mean much without Jimmy Butler on the court, and the Cavs will take full advantage. While Miami’s coaching and grit might be enough to steal a game, they’ll be headed to Cancun in five.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 5
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #7 Orlando Magic
This is an interesting one. The Boston Celtics have made more three-pointers than any team in NBA history, while the Orlando Magic make — and allow — the fewest threes in the league. Despite that intriguing contrast, I still think Boston will run away with this series.
At the end of the day, this matchup comes down to scoring. The Magic might be able to limit Boston's preferred three-point looks, but it might not matter. The Celtics have a wealth of offensive talent that’s just as capable of attacking the rim as it is of shooting from deep. Driving to the basket may not be their usual game plan, but they executed it well in a mid-season matchup against Orlando. In that game, once Boston began attacking the paint with purpose, the Orlando defense collapsed, opening up cleaner looks from beyond the arc.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are an exciting young duo — they actually remind me a bit of a younger Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — but the rest of the Magic roster simply can’t keep up. While Banchero and Wagner may challenge Boston’s wings, Orlando doesn’t have the firepower to make a real dent. If you’re just comparing the top players in the series, Boston and Orlando might split the top four (Tatum, Banchero, Brown, Wagner), but the Celtics clearly have the next five best players. Derrick White, Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday, Payton Pritchard, and Al Horford are all more impactful than anyone else on the Magic roster.
Even if Wagner and Banchero have legendary performances, it likely won’t be enough. I’m actually a big fan of what the Magic are building — they’ve got a bright future — but they’re just not ready to take down the defending champs.
Prediction: Celtics in 4
#3 New York Knicks vs. #6 Detroit Pistons
This is one of the most intriguing first-round matchups. After an abysmal season last year, the Pistons have been one of the league’s most fun surprises, while the Knicks are still ironing out the growing pains of their new star-studded roster. With their experience, depth, and scoring, it’s easy to favor the Knicks, but Detroit can make some noise.
The biggest swing player is Cade Cunningham. He’s torched the Knicks this season, averaging 30.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 5 rebounds in four matchups. But the playoffs are a different animal. Cunningham is Detroit’s engine, and for them to have a shot, he needs to be on point. Making his playoff debut at Madison Square Garden is a daunting ask, but he might just have the mentality to rise to the moment.
Still, even if Cade delivers, Detroit’s supporting cast needs to step up—and with most of the roster lacking playoff experience, that’s a tough ask. The only Pistons with postseason reps—Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Dennis Schroder—are their streakiest shooters. When they go cold, the Pistons can revert to their old struggles, and the Knicks’ defense is built to force tough shots.
Detroit’s best chance to cause havoc lies in their modern “Bad Boys” trio: Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Ron Holland. None are consistent scorers, but they can make their mark by disrupting stars like Karl-Anthony Towns or Mikal Bridges. If they rattle New York’s rhythm, things could get interesting.
Still, it’s hard not to pick the Knicks. When they’re all clicking, they’re tough to beat—and even if the whole squad isn’t firing, Jalen Brunson’s clutch play and connection with KAT might be all they need.
Prediction: Knicks in 5
#4 Indiana Pacers vs. #5 Milwaukee Bucks
When looking at the depth of these rosters, it’s hard to imagine the Milwaukee Bucks winning this series—but with Giannis Antetokounmpo, anything is possible. Add Damian Lillard’s return, and things become a lot more interesting.
Milwaukee won three of four games against Indiana this season and enters the playoffs on an eight-game win streak, suggesting they might have enough to pull off a surprise. Giannis has played only three playoff games since 2022 and has been fading from the national conversation, which could fuel a dominant run – a very scary sight for Indiana.
Still, his excellence is almost a given, and the Pacers have shown they can handle it. The real X-factor is Damian Lillard. He struggled against the Pacers this year, averaging just 18.3 points on 35.5% shooting, and is coming off a long absence due to blood clots. If he can’t find his footing quickly, the Bucks are in trouble.
Even if Giannis and Dame combine for their league-best 55.5 points per game, Indiana still has the depth to cushion the blow. The Pacers' athletic, versatile roster can neutralize Milwaukee’s secondary contributors like Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Kyle Kuzma, while blowing the doors off of them on the other end.
To win, Tyrese Haliburton must be at his best, and all signs point to a big series. His best career averages have come against Milwaukee: 21.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game on 40% from three. When he plays well, Indiana almost always wins. Still, he’ll need support.
That’s where Pascal Siakam comes in. Though he’s been hampered by an elbow injury, his impact is massive. He torched the Bucks for 36.5 points per game in the first two games of their playoff matchup last year and will likely draw the Giannis assignment on defense.
Even with Giannis primed for a statement series, the Bucks’ lack of depth is too much to overcome. The Pacers should take this one convincingly.
Prediction: Pacers in 5
