Situation is Everything: The Story of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield
How second-chances have revived the career of two 2018 first round QBs.
Every year, several quarterbacks are drafted in the first round by struggling franchises. Fans and front offices alike hope that their new “franchise guy” will lead them to the promised land; yet, more often than not, it doesn't work out that way. NFL history has been riddled with quarterbacks who fail to live up to expectations, blamed for not having the tools necessary to execute at the professional level. They quickly get labeled as “busts” and are never given another legitimate shot at leading a team.
This pattern has been going on for decades. Yet, two quarterbacks this year are proving that talent is not to blame for this trend . After being written off as busts with their first few franchises, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield are the leaders of playoff teams, redefining how the world should evaluate young quarterbacks.
In the 2018 NFL Draft, Baker Mayfield was taken by the Cleveland Browns with the first overall pick. Just two picks later, the New York Jets drafted Sam Darnold. Both of these players had legendary college careers, and both franchises - which have horrible histories with drafting quarterbacks - hoped they had finally secured their quarterback of the future.
For Baker, things started off smoothly. Mayfield led the Browns to a 7-8-1 record, just one year removed from an infamous 0-16 season for the franchise. He looked very solid, with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on the season. Over the next two seasons, Baker turned the Browns into a playoff team, but interception issues started to arise. After a disappointing fourth season in Cleveland, Baker was traded to the Carolina Panthers for a fifth-round draft pick in 2022.
In New York, Darnold never found his footing. After subpar stats in his first two seasons, the Jets were waiting for an impressive jump in his third season. Instead, he regressed, throwing 9 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a dismal 32.9 quarterback rating. Thus, Darnold was also shipped off to the Panthers in 2021 for a few late-round picks.
Darnold arrived first in Carolina and further regressed in his twelve starts. When Baker arrived and won the quarterback competition, he looked like a shell of the quarterback he once was. Midway through that 2022 season, Darnold took over for Baker, getting yet another chance. Again, he failed to play at a high level.
And there they were. Two young quarterbacks who failed to revive their careers in Carolina, looking like they would join the lineage of first-round quarterback draft busts. The two went their separate ways - Darnold to San Francisco and Baker to Los Angeles - to serve as backups.
In a late-season game, Matthew Stafford got hurt, and the Rams needed Baker against the Raiders. Baker led the Rams to a 98-yard game-winning drive that not only saved the Rams’ season but his career. The following offseason, in 2023, the Buccaneers offered him a one-year deal: his final shot.
With the 49ers, Darnold never got a true chance. After one season where he barely played, he signed with the Minnesota Vikings this summer to be the backup to first-round rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy. During training camp, McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury, opening up an opportunity for Sam Darnold. Many fans saw this season as a rebuilding year, hoping Darnold could keep the team afloat before their promising rookie returned.
Fast forward to today, and these two are leading their teams to the playoffs.
Baker Mayfield had a great first season in Tampa Bay, securing a three-year, $100 million deal this past offseason. This season, Baker has even exceeded the expectations of a $100 million quarterback. Today, he has 39 touchdowns and 4,000+ yards on 71.7% completion - absolutely elite stats. While the Buccaneers are still battling for a playoff spot, Baker is undoubtedly Tampa’s franchise quarterback for years to come.
As for Sam Darnold, he is the best story in sports. The Vikings are currently the first seed in the NFC with a 14-2 record, and Darnold finally looks like the elite quarterback he was at USC. With 35 touchdowns and 4,000+ yards, Darnold has led the Vikings as a serious Super Bowl contender in a year that many fans thought they’d fail to make the playoffs. Now, questions have arisen about whether the Vikings should lock up Darnold with a multi-year contract and sit JJ McCarthy when he is healthy. No matter what team Darnold is on next year, he will be a multi-hundred-million dollar asset.
The story of these two quarterbacks is about more than second chances and luck. It shows how important coaching and ownership are in developing young quarterbacks.
Mayfield and Darnold were both drafted by historically dysfunctional franchises. The Browns, of course, are the worst football team of all time, and their mismanagement has continued to make headlines in recent years. Their decision to replace Baker and trade away their future for Deshaun Watson- who had 10+ counts of sexual assault and rape at the time - was morally incorrect and ill-advised beyond pretense. As always, they find themselves in perpetual NFL mediocrity. It’s no wonder they weren’t able to harness Baker’s talent.
This year, the Jets’ dysfunction has been put in the spotlight more than ever, revealing why Darnold was unable to find success with his original team. Their owner has outwardly admitted that he lets his teenage sons make important drafting decisions and evaluate players based on their ratings from Madden - a fictional football video game. They are so horrible that Aaron Rodgers - one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history - has looked like a shell of himself and may be pushed to retirement.
Both of their stints with the Carolina Panthers are no different. While the Panthers deserve some credit for the progress they have made this year, let’s not pretend that they are historically skilled at coaching and ownership decisions. Their incompetence kept them unable to harness the talent of two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL - and they had them at the same time.
When both Mayfield and Darnold got an opportunity with successful, well-managed franchises with solid coaching, they thrived. While Todd Bowles, Baker Mayfield’s coach, is no offensive mastermind, the Tampa organization has historically proven they know how to foster an environment that leads to playoff contention. Darnold’s time under Kevin O'Connell, the Vikings head coach who has been labeled the “quarterback whisperer,” has led to a historic transformation.
All in all, being surrounded by competent coaching and ownership is by far the biggest determining factor for success in young quarterbacks. Even though it’s still early, we can see this playing out with this year’s rookie quarterbacks. While Caleb Williams is struggling under a chaotic Bears regime, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are thriving through the guidance of their experienced, solid coaching staffs.
Ultimately, this should redefine how fans evaluate “busts” in the NFL. Just think of how many ultra-talented quarterbacks have been prevented from reaching their true potential by a bad environment. Hidden in the history of “bad drafting” in the NFL, potential franchise quarterbacks are exiled from football with careers destroyed by external factors.
With lots of buzz surrounding Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward - two unbelievable quarterback talents - as we head into the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s time to consider the situations they are drafted into. With the Giants and Raiders looking like their landing spots, fans can only hope that these franchises institute proper coaching and management to realize the potential of these generational talents.
*Special shoutout to
for the article idea